By Celsus Ohain
(A Nigerian journalist)
Why the US did not want defunct Soviet influence in its backyard (Cuba) in the early 60s is the same reason Russia does not want NATO in its backyard of today (Ukraine).
Times may have changed, the dynamics of the international system too; but the underlying principles remain as constant.
Perceptive analysts must view the prevailing crisis in Ukraine with a very clear understanding of how the inter-state system works in the politics amongst nation.
Quite understandably, emotions and sentiments are ruling the minds of many, especially with the pics and videos of children and women and other victims of war, when in truth, ‘all is fair that is foul’ in the anarchic and chaotic turf of the international system that is defined by interests and goals. Is there anything truly moral in the int’l system? Methink ‘no’, even though desirable!
Third World War in view? ‘No’, because of certain realities and variables.
For one, It’s ordinarily in the US, nay NATO’s strategic interests to extend their sphere of influence to the border and doorsteps of their arch rival – Russia, to have a ringside view of every of her moves. But for Russia, this is totally unacceptable; hence the raging crisis to salvage what is left of the old soviet empire.
Interestingly, peace talks between Ukraine & Russia, brokered by the Israeli PM begins today with little optimism of immediate ceasefire.
Will NATO & US engage in a shooting war with Russia over Ukraine? A very remote possibility.
The future scenario in the raging crisis is likely that Russia will eventually over-run Ukraine but will be bogged down by a prolonged insurgency, fostered by the West, to the goal of further weakening Russia’s economy by ‘other means’ even when some sanctions wii be lifted for Russia due to some ‘understandable reasons’.
Likelihood is that Ukrainians will forge a resistance army of citizens abroad that may infiltrate the ‘conquered’ Ukraine from Poland, an act Russia will never take kindly to. And if such insurgency persists from across Poland or even Hungary with the full knowledge and backing of NATO, Russia ‘pursue’ them into Polish territory and thus infringe on their territorial integrity and by extension, NATO’s borderline.
If, under pressure, national pride and ego, Poland confronts Russian forces in retaliation, what will be NATO’s response? Declaring war on Russia! ‘No’, because of the greater implication of nuclear exchanges which will benefit no one. Beyond initial rhetoric from both sides, they will go to the negotiating table and reach an ‘ accord con-cordiale’.
At the end, Ukraine will be traded if for NATO’s retention of Poland and other former East bloc nation! A deal of gain on the long run after souls have perished and economies ruined!
Lesson: The superpowers will always use lesser nations as pawns in their chess game, hence every nation will aspire for ‘power and influence’, to dominate – the reason why there will always be crises here and there.
Just a random musing!
