By Celsus Ohain.
Ahead of Nigeria’s next Presidential election in February, next year, the die is already cast and in all probabilities, there is no going back; notwithstanding the complex interplay of issues and forces that are not strange to our political experience.
Like the Roman General and Conqueror, Julius Caesar would say – ‘we have crossed the Rubicon’. Events of the last few months since party conventions threw up Presidential candidates have spinned diverse and varied perspectives, emotions and sentiments which though largely lack ideological bases but nonetheless derive from the nature of our politicking.
By today, three Presidential candidates – Ahmed Bola Tinubu (APC), Peter Obi (LP) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) – and a fourth struggling one, Rabiu Kwankwanso of the NNPP are clearly visible on the horizon. All the candidates have been crisscrossing various towns and geopolitical zones in the country, selling themselves, their parties and ‘manifestoes’.
The degree of their reception cum acceptance in places visited is intriguing and a pointer to the trend the general elections will take.
Much as well-meaning citizens across the broad spectrum of the society have strenuously advocated the extrication of ethnicity/tribalism and religion from our politics – both of which continually let out toxic effects – counter forces which lurk in the shadows never relent to exacerbate them, thus undermining the nation’s push to true growth, unity and development.
One is not saying that religion and ethnic affiliation are bad in essence. They both have their own pluses in the spiritual and sociological realms. The problem is they being used as instruments of manipulation and deception for very purely parochial and selfish interests at the expense of the nation’s good.
The choosing of presidential candidates and their running mates were largely enmeshed in religious and ethnic sentiments; either to leverage for wider acceptance or used to draw flacks from dissenters. Some will insist that such tendencies are indeed the name of the game in Nigeria and so, we must learn to live with them.
What has thus far been the disposition of the average Nigerian voter to the elected candidates and their political parties? It would seem a mixed grill of sorts! While some remain torn between party loyalty and candidates’ support, others, mostly the younger generation are routing for only candidates of their choice, caring less about the candidates’ political parties.
By Nigeria’s own political experience since birth of the Fourth Republic in 1999, political parties either become an asset or a liability, depending on your indicators and choice of reference frame. It is increasingly so because erstwhile political office holders and even some incumbents have either performed badly to hang on them the ‘liability’ tag or excelled to be adorned with the ‘asset’ tag. Their political parties also share in hanging either of the two tags.
Interestingly, all the Presidential candidates on the stage now for 2023 are no green horns; they have been active players in the nation’s Fourth Republic politics and they are quite conversant with the ropes and intricacies involved as they ‘bob and weave’ or carefully meander through the landmines or navigate Nigeria’s slippery political surface.
Candidates Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso have each been two-term executive governors while Atiku served out a two-term vice Presidency, making them all old war horses!
However, the emerging political equations for the next president’s election are puzzling and quickly unpredictable as every new day dawns. No one, for now is completely sure what the throwing of dice would play up. Hopes are rising as they are quickly dashed, hence every political steps, statements and pronouncements by the candidates are now being carefully weighed so as not to breed the unintended effects. Such caution has become as that sensitive because of recent blunders by some candidates in ill-considered utterances and viewpoints that were really costly.
How do the Presidential candidates and their parties now rate, barely two-and-a-half months to the presidential election?
One may not be too persuaded by the recent results of opinion polls which variously favoured different candidates at different times. Sometimes, these polls struggle with credibility while at other times, they are driven by motives known only to the originators.
We may now look into the main presidential candidates and their leverages thus far:
Presidential Candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu:
For Senator Tinubu, he has behind him the APC-led Federal government, which comes with the usual collateral benefits of incumbency. The former senator and governor is well reputed to have a large war-chest; he has never denied this, insisting that his monies derived from legitimate earnings made from hard-work and excellence over the years. He blazed laudable and enviable trail in state governance, especially in infrastructure and internal revenue generation, which model many state governors adopted for their own development. No one can honestly deny Tinubu that credit in modern governance in Nigeria!
He is also a man of wide reach in relationships and acceptance across a board spectrum of the Nigerian society, though a lot of seamy perceptions also abound around him arising from his perceived enormous wealth and health challenges. He has been a respected bridge builder from his NADECO days when he entered the fringes of politics and as late former Senate Leader Olusola Saraki, the ‘Jagaban’ oiled his political machinery in and out of season.
Ruthlessly efficient in formulating his tactics and strategies, Tinubu is not known to treat disloyalty kindly. Ambode, Fashola and Osinbajo may tell that side of Tinubu’s personality better.
Nevertheless, there are challenging hurdles for him to scale this time around in this titanic fight well beyond the NADECO days, Lagos politics and intra-Party politics! Now, the stakes are higher, more sensitive and potentially explosive underscoring handle all emerging issues gingerly as a potential dynamite.
Against the backdrop of his political party – the APC and its incumbency, it will be interesting to see what advantages or disadvantages these bring for Tinubu in his bid for the nation’s Presidency. For, while some Nigerians rate the APC administration under Gen Buhari as having scored well in areas as infrastructure and agricultural development, amongst others; not a few others view his performance as dismal, especially in the areas of security and economic management, pointing to the poor rating of the Naira against the American dollar, couple with high inflation.
How these issues weigh in the minds of the electorate will largely determine the level of support for him; he cannot detach himself from his party’s performance in the last eight years since he was one of the arrowheads of Buhari presidential campaign in 2015.
Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket stirred some controversy in a nation where tribe and religion are first considered before competence for the job; again a product of our historical and political experience. For the Tinubu think-tank, that decision was strategic and tactical, the prime objective of which is to garner votes. He tells anyone who cares to listen that he has no religious bias whatsoever and that his wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu is a Christian and pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God. Ironically, virtually all politicians use the ‘religion card’ but in varying degree; some open and brazenly and others, quietly and stealthily. We all know this and must not pretend that it doesn’t exist!
Candidate Peter Obi:
Mr Peter Obi came unto the presidential scene innocuously but has since taken the stage like a raging tornado, birthing what is today called the ‘Obi Phenomenon’ by his ardent supporters called the ‘Obi-dients’.
Is he a ‘fry in the pan’ or a tornado that will quickly fizzle out as soon as it begin? This was the initial thought about his candidacy but it is increasingly proving a wrong assumption. The man, Obi, has become a phenomenon, somehow symbolizing the aspirations of the Nigerian Youth who feel alienated, disenchanted and resolved to ‘take back Nigeria’ via the instrumentality of Peter Obi’s presidential aspiration.
Obi is surprisingly playing virtually shoulder-to-shoulder with Tinubu and Atiku, the big guns in the race. He may not be having as much war-chest as the two former. Even if he has, he is not one known for such generous disbursements to achieve political goals. For Obi, it’s a matter of one coming clean with his clear program and good intentions which are enough to woo Nigerians who are truly interested in the nation’s development.
He had contested as running mate to Atiku in the PDP in the last presidential election, which proved a disaster for him. Standing on his own this time around as a candidate for president may be proving a wiser choice for him.
Obi is now very visible on the stage, and day by day more support groups are rising for him both inside and outside his new-found political party – Labour Party. The revving is high for him, especially amongst the youth segment of the society. Could these in fact translate to electoral value? This is a question no one can answer until the Election Day. His choice of running mate is also quite intriguing.
Ahmed Datti is a self-effacing man, seemingly not given to loudness or flamboyant but no doubt a successful businessman and edupreneur. Though not totally new in politics, no one is undermining his clout, reach and acceptance across board, which makes him the best choice for Obi as running mate. It’s a formidable pair for which there has been no misgivings or dissent from any quarters so far.
Candidate Abubakar Atiku:
Alh Abubakar Atiku is an old warrior in politics who learned the art from his erstwhile master – rtd Gen Shehu Musa Yar’Adua of blessed memory. Atiku has seen it through and through in partisan politics and is a well-seasoned player you undermine at your own peril. OBJ can tell this aspect of Atiku better.
Atiku, too is great bridge-builder across Nigeria’s geo-political space. Well loaded in material and financial resources, he will fight any opponent to the finish: ‘money-for-money’, ‘materials-for-materials’, ‘votes-for-votes and ‘influence-for-influence’. He cannot be cowed or intimidated by any opponent; a fighter to the finish! However, Atiku’s ‘political enemies’ from whom his troubles stem are ‘members of his political household’ – the PDP. The acrimonies that trailed the party’s presidential primary was deep and has not abated; not with the tenacious posture of Gov Nyesom Wike and his group within the PDP.
The acrimony stemmed from the alleged breach of a gentlemanly agreement of the PDP to field a southern presidential candidate this time around or that the party headship would revert to the south if a Northern presidency is insisted upon by the party. These may indeed be smokescreens for other issues not known by many and which none of the ‘insiders’ is willing to say.
Moreover, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa’s choice as Atiku’s running mate is another headache for Atiku. The South-South, it is said, felt betrayed by Okowa, under whose watch a decision was taken that all serving southern governors should go for a southern presidential candidate. This ‘turning of coat’, for some key players in the PDP, is unforgivable hence the current extent of acrimonies within the party. The PDP ruled Nigeria for 16 years from 1999 when civilians came on board. First was Olusegun Obasanjo; next Alh Umaru Yar’Adua and then Dr Goodluck Jonathan as the presidents.
Many Nigerians and prospective voters sure have different perceptions about the performance of the PDP in governance in those years, and that will translate to support or otherwise to Atiku as the PDP flag bearer.
Candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso:
Rabiu Kwankwanso was two-term Governor of Kano State and later, a Minister of the Federal Republic. He was quite ambitious going for the presidency on the ticket of the NNPP. He may have a strong hold of Kano State and a significant inroad into some neighbouring states. In terms of national outlook and reach, Kwankwaso still needs to do more. As the election date draws closer, his party’s alliance with any of the other three candidates may not be ruled out if he considers his chances getting slimmer. All the same, the Kano strongman is braving it, despite his differences with the serving Governor, Alh. Ganduje.
In all, the race for the 2023 presidency is becoming more interesting and unpredictable. It’s like a contest between the old and new guard – Atiku and Tinubu symbolizing the former while Obi and Kwankwaso symbolizes the latter.
Other parties are fielding their own Presidential candidates, many of them little known beyond their party executives. That is the beauty of democracy where all can have their field day. Party primaries and general elections, as always will eventually separate the ‘men’ from the ‘boys’.
So, as the dice rolls, who becomes Nigeria’s next President?
Mr Celsus Ohain writes from Benin City.
erocel2@gmail.com
