By Onimisi Joseph.
As the 2027 gubernatorial election draws near, Kogi State once again finds itself at a familiar political crossroads. At the center of the debate is the lingering question: Which senatorial district and by extension, which ethnic group will produce the next governor? The stakes are high, and all eyes are now on the Ebira ethnic group of Kogi Central, who have held the reins of power since 2016, first through Governor Yahaya Bello and currently Governor Usman Ododo.
Yet, as the elders remind us, “Even the river that flowed last season must earn its way again to the ocean.” The continuation of an Ebira governor beyond 2027 is far from guaranteed. It will depend on a complex interplay of performance, political alliances, ethnic sentiments, and national influence. This article unpacks the major factors that will determine whether Kogi Central can retain power or pass the baton.
Without a doubt, incumbency remains the Ebira’s strongest asset. With Governor Ododo, an Ebira man, currently occupying Lugard House under the All Progressives Congress (APC), the levers of government remain firmly in Central hands. The APC has been the ruling party in Kogi since 2015, enjoying considerable dominance in both the executive and legislative arms.
If Ododo maintains political control and the APC decides to zone the governorship within Kogi Central, another Ebira candidate could be positioned to succeed him. But as the wise say, “The king’s crown is not passed down by force; it is earned by respect and approval.” Legitimacy must be earned not assumed.
Another critical determinant is how Governor Ododo’s administration is judged by 2027.
If his government is perceived to have delivered on development, appointments, infrastructure, and peace across the three senatorial districts, the case for continuity becomes stronger.

But if his leadership is seen as favoring only Kogi Central, while Kogi East (Igala) and Kogi West (Okun) feel left behind, resentment will mount. “A farmer is only given more land if his last harvest fed the village,” says an African proverb. The Ododo government must therefore govern with balance and fairness, or risk backlash against another Ebira bid.
While zoning has never been formally institutionalized in Kogi politics, it is gaining momentum as a moral argument.
Since 1991, Kogi East (Igala) ruled for 16 years, Kogi Central (Ebira) has ruled since 2016 and Kogi West (Okun) has never produced a governor.
This imbalance is fueling calls from Okun leaders and civil society groups for a rotational arrangement. As the Yoruba say, “When the meat is being shared and your hand is not in the pot, your voice must be loud.” If public sentiment coalesces around zoning to Kogi West, it could seriously threaten another Ebira candidacy unless the Ebira build alliances that transcend ethnic lines.
The Igala people of Kogi East still boast the largest voting population in the state. Their loss of power in 2015 especially following the sudden death of Prince Abubakar Audu was seen by many as a political betrayal, resentment has simmered since then.
In 2027, if the Igala and Okun can put aside differences and rally behind a strong, united candidate, they could tilt the electoral balance. However, fragmentation within the Igala elite, and among opposition parties like PDP, SDP, and ADC, has historically benefited the APC and the Ebira bloc. Still, “The hunter who underestimates a wounded lion does so at his own peril.”
Kogi’s youth now the largest segment of voters are increasingly frustrated with tribal politics. They seek leaders who deliver on jobs, education, security, and transparency. Under Yahaya Bello, the Ebira bloc tapped into youth mobilization and digital outreach, which helped consolidate their grip on power.
But 2027 will not be 2019. “The child who dances to yesterday’s drumbeat may miss today’s rhythm.” Youth expectations have evolved, and unless the Ebira political elite adapt, they may lose this crucial demographic.
The national political climate will also weigh heavily. If the APC remains dominant at the federal level, and party leadership backs a candidate from Kogi Central, it could tip the balance in favor of another Ebira governor.
Moreover, former Governor Yahaya Bello remains a political heavyweight. His influence over party structure, funding, and grassroots mobilization could shape the outcome. But as they say, “A tree supported by the forest does not fear the storm.” Only strong alliances within and outside Kogi will guarantee success.
Kogi elections have historically been controversial and tense, often marred by allegations of manipulation, voter suppression, and violence. The role of INEC and security agencies in ensuring free and fair elections will be under serious scrutiny in 2027.
“The dog that barks at the gate must be watched when the meat is missing from the pot.” Trust in the process will determine not just who wins, but whether the outcome is accepted by the people.
The possibility of another Ebira governor in 2027 is real but far from assured. It will rest on the performance and inclusiveness of Governor Ododo’s administration, the unity or fragmentation of the opposition, the strength of zoning arguments, especially from Kogi West and the ability to mobilize youth, earn public trust, and build inter-ethnic alliances.
Above all, the journey ahead demands statesmanship over ambition. As the elders say, “A pot cooked with three stones stands firmer than one leaning on a single leg.” Only through equity, unity, and visionary leadership can Kogi move from confluence to consensus.
– Onimisi Joseph writes from Abuja.
isaiahonimisijoseph@gmail.com
Culled from Kogi Reports.
