By Dada Ahmed.
In what could be described as one of the boldest political developments in recent Nigerian history, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is again proving that the game of power is not always won at the ballot but often in the backrooms of elite negotiations. According to media report,with an audacious plan to woo at least five sitting governors into its fold, the APC appears to be consolidating power ahead of the 2027 general elections. But beneath the surface of this aggressive expansion lies a more complex and precarious democratic landscape.
Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu’s declaration that defections are “not speculative, they are imminent” in an exclusive interview with Punch,has not only stirred panic within opposition ranks but has also reignited debates about the health of Nigeria’s political culture. If true, the impending defections from governors in Bayelsa, Rivers, Plateau, Kano, and possibly Abia or Enugu mark a seismic shift in Nigeria’s political alignments. Yet, such movements raise critical questions about ideology, accountability, and the integrity of the electoral mandate.
One cannot ignore the strategic timing of this move. The APC’s maneuvering comes on the heels of Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje’s resignation as National Chairman, widely interpreted as a surgical move to reposition the party for ruthless efficiency. This reset appears less about internal reforms and more about tightening control over Nigeria’s political chessboard.
The reference to “Hurricane Tinubu” is both symbolic and telling. Like a political tempest, the president’s team is sweeping across geopolitical zones, blurring ideological lines, and hollowing out the opposition from within. Perhaps,It’s a tactic not unfamiliar in Nigerian politics, but the scale and brazenness of the current wave suggest a hyper-centralized strategy,led from the very top.
However, the defections, particularly from governors like Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom and Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, do not come without implications. These leaders were elected under opposition banners and given mandates by voters who believed in alternative political visions. Their cross-carpet moves to the ruling party may serve partisan calculations, but they equally erode the sanctity of the democratic contract between the electorate and their chosen representatives.
Meanwhile, opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi seem caught flat-footed. Their hurried talks of a “mega alliance” sound more like a reactive gambit than a well-thought-out counter strategy. If the 2023 elections revealed anything, it’s that Nigerian voters are increasingly issue-driven. Yet, the opposition’s lack of a coherent, united message makes the APC’s advances even more potent.
The situation in Osun State reveals another dimension to the saga: the dangers of internal party schisms. The political calculation by political analysts is that,while Governor Adeleke may be sending feelers to the APC, the unresolved rivalry between former Governor Oyetola and National Secretary,Ajibola Basiru signals a gatekeeping tension that could sabotage APC’s unification efforts. Such internal fractures, if unmanaged, could prove costly in tight political contests.
Also telling is Arodiogbu’s focus on Anambra as a “key prize.” With the emergence of Nicholas Ukachukwu as APC’s frontline candidate, the party seems poised to mount a serious challenge in a state that historically rebuffed it. But the political calculus of Anambra is complex; ethno-cultural dynamics, elite consensus, and grassroots loyalties make it anything but low-hanging fruit.
Moreover, the APC’s assertion that defections equate to electoral victory may be premature. Nigeria’s voters have evolved. Social media activism, civil society scrutiny, and a growing youth demographic mean that political actors will be held increasingly accountable for opportunistic moves. The risk for the APC is that, it may win the battle of defections but may in turn lose the war of public perception.
There’s also the ethical dimension. Should governors elected on one platform be allowed to switch parties mid-term without fresh mandates from the electorate? Nigeria’s constitution permits it, but the spirit of democracy demands a higher standard. Defections for the sake of power, not ideology, deepen public cynicism and feed the narrative that Nigerian politics is a marketplace of self-interest.
Still, credit must be given where due. The APC’s machine, under Tinubu’s presidency, has proven tactically adept. It understands the weakness of a divided opposition, leverages incumbency with strategic finesse, and winning political loyalty in ways rarely seen since the days of PDP’s imperial rule under Obasanjo.
Yet, in politics, every action births a reaction. The more the APC swallows opposition states, the more it becomes the sole object of public scrutiny. With great power comes great accountability, and with the bar of expectations rising daily, the APC’s 2027 strategy must be more than about winning,it must be about continued delivering of dividends of democracy to the people.
Ultimately, while the APC’s strategy may be viewed in some quarters, equating the unfolding scenario to a political monopoly, political observers hold the opinion that the long-term health of Nigeria’s democracy depends on the survival of a credible opposition. If the defections continue unchecked, and if the opposition fails to reinvent itself meaningfully, Nigerians may be left with a one-party state.
Ahmed, a Political Analyst & Journalist, publishes The Reporters.
ahmeddada008@gmail.com.
