By Celsus Ohain
Donald Trump re-emerged on the American political scene with the force of a hurricane, unsettling international nerves and creating a rumble in the international system.
Not surprising but rattling was his inaugural address which was heavily laden with combative salvos, part of which were his intended mass deportation of illegal immigrants, imposition of trade tariffs on trading partners, US re-acquisition of the Panama Canal, etc.
It is well understood that Trump had the overwhelming support of the American people, who have proved twice and quite convincingly that America has yet to be ready for a female presidency.
Also noted is the cardinal philosophy driving Trump’s socio-political and economic agenda which are: ‘America First’ and ‘Returning the Old Glory’. Their immediate take off bespeak of what looks like Trump’s ‘authoritarian instincts’,
No one disputes the right of the United States under Donald Trump to pursue what it considers its national interest but in so doing, it must be realized that no nation exists in a vacuum or isolation by the realities of modern times.
The entire International System is so intertwined that certain defined rules guide it, even though scholars of international relations describe the system as ‘chaotic’ and ‘anarchic’.
Not even the jungle is that ‘lawless’ as to allow wild goats cross the paths of lions with reckless abandon. In the international system, ‘National Power’ or ‘Real Politik’ is the name of the game.
Tagging Canada as America’s 51st State indeed smacked of territorial expansionism and imperial arrogance which has already aroused ire in Canada. It may be a joke taken too far but Trump is not a joker though he has a penchant to convey his messages in jocularity. His foray to Greenland is another issue.
Already, he has slammed Canada, China and Mexico with increased trade tariffs which have elicited immediate retaliation from the three affected nations in what would obviously be the onset of an international trade war, the end of which no one can accurately predict.
The ‘NATO Question’ remains there, where members remain unsure of America’s next moves and so are already resigning themselves to fate, now striving to take Europe’s future in their hands, especially against the backdrop of the Ukraine-Russia war.
The threat of US forceful re-acquisition of Panama Canal is another seemingly vexatious outburst by the American President. Does the 1977 Panama Canal Handover Treaty make room for that kind of option by any stretch of imagination? Legal experts say ‘no’ but it remains to be seen what exactly Trump will do. Another Manuel Noriega saga which later turned into an albatross for the US will not repeat itself.
The commencement of mass deportation of illegal immigrants from American shores, on the other hand, is already creating a ripple effect on the nation’s economy. The farms are becoming empty of hands, most of whom are unauthorized immigrants who have gone into hiding to avoid deportation.
Will the US recline to its old national ‘Policy of Isolationism’ before WW 11?
Only the future can tell.
(The author, Celsus Ohain is a veteran Nigerian journalist & global diplomacy analyst)
